US shuns the right side of Pakistan’s history
(A very interesting article)
by MK Bhadrakumar
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2013/04/23/us-shuns-the-right-side-of-pakistans-history/
The
United States has given a huge boost to the Pakistani army chief
General Ashfaq Kayani at a critical turning point in Pakistani politics.
Secretary of State John Kerry had a dinner meeting at Amman with Kayani
last month. A team of senior US officials met Kayani at the GHQ in Rawalpindi in the weekend.
It has since been announced that Kerry will be having a ‘trilateral’ with Kayani and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Brussels on Wednesday.
(Karzai is a reluctant partner, as his open invitation to China to exploit the geopolitics of the region plainly underscores even as he left for Brussels.)
Hmm.
Three meetings for Kayani with American interlocutors within a month’s
time. What needs to be noted is that all this is happening despite the
fact that within a few weeks Pakistan is going to have an elected
government.
Put differently, all this is happening precisely because Pakistan is going to have an elected government very soon.
The
heart of the matter is that both Washington and the Pakistani military
leadership are viewing with unease bordering on trepidation the prospect
of an elected government headed by Nawaz Sharif, which is the probable
outcome of the parliamentary election in May.
The
US apprehends that Sharif will be a difficult customer, given his
‘desi’ outlook and his links with the ‘anti-US’ Islamic parties (who may
well form part of his coalition government), while the
army dreads that once ensconced in power in Islamabad he will
inexorably push the envelope on civilian supremacy in policymaking.
Both
are valid fears and it explains Kerry’s manifest rush to get peace
talks somehow started with Kayani’s help by exploiting the latter’s need
of US support in the upcoming tussle with a Sharif-led civilian
government.
Alas,
the US is once again bolstering the Pakistani army’s dominance at the
cost of democratic forces. And it comes as no surprise that the
Pakistani generals are using the American crutch to maintain their
dominance in domestic politics.
Quite
obviously, the return of former military dictator Pervez Musharraf to
Pakistan fits into this paradigm. Musharraf was America’s trusted man in
Islamabad and being a highly compromised personality, he now has no
choice but to subserve US interests till the end of his life.
In
sum, Musharraf has been inducted into Pakistan’s domestic politics with
great deliberation rather than arriving on his own accord, as is being
projected.
He
will now be playing a dual role — as the bridge
between the Pakistani military and the country’s political class and at
the same time as the courier between Rawalpindi and Washington. It is a
role he is uniquely suited to play.
Without
doubt, Kayani can be trusted to ensure that Musharraf gets
incrementally rehabilitated as a full time politician in Pakistan.
It
has been a bumpy ride so far for Musharraf, which is only to be
expected, considering the huge backlog he created before going into
exile.
But the army trusts his capability and grit to weather this storm and
survive.
On its part, the army is steadily creating an opinion from behind the scenes that Musharraf should not be ‘humiliated.’
Indeed,
Musharraf will face rough weather for a while but he can be ultimately
expected to emerge with a key role in Pakistani politics serving the
army’s and the US’s interests.
Meanwhile, what is happening is a dress rehearsal in
the sense that Nawaz Sharif will come under compulsion to go slow in
cracking the whip at Musharraf or the army — or to pursue policies that
may adversely impact the US’ interests.
The
mother of all ironies is that Washington ought to know that the
democratization process in Pakistan is virtually unstoppable now and yet
it is
opting out of being on the ‘right side of history.’
The
reason is not far to seek — it is Kayani and Musharraf who can serve
the US regional strategy at this juncture, and not Nawaz Sharif.
From
the US perspective, the dream team in these critical months would have
been Kayani plus an Asif Zardari - Musharraf combine. But then, young
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is only 25 years old and at that age, young men
tend to be idealistic.
– April 23, 2013
2 Responses
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- Anonymous saysNawaz Sharif will mostly serve the Saudi interests. Imran Khan is the creation of Pakistan ssi and the military itself.
- Anonymous saysMr. Bhadrakumar is a distinguished analyst and one who I admire a lot. In this particular case, however, I beg to differ with the inferences he has drawn from some recent events. He is on the dot except in one aspect and that is Nawaz Sharif’s compulsion to toe the American line. If the army and the US are wary of anyone who may throw a wrench into the works it is Imran Khan - the more likely winner in the coming contest. Nawaz Sharif is openly pro US, it is Imran who has been condemning American intervention in Pakistan’s affairs rather vociferously and has promised an immediate disengagement from the American led war on terror.
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