China:
Need for Hard Options by Bharat Karnad in IDR. Nov 18, 2012
I think one thing
that strikes me very starkly when I contemplate China vis-a-vis India is the
historical sense of humiliation, which has not been mentioned so far. The
Chinese are very historical minded. And they remember slights that occured long
ago. It was said of Zhou Enlai that he remembered the fact that his hand was not
shaken when he offered it to John Foster Dulles in 1954. And the Chinese
remembered it and therefore to correct that imbalance, Richard Nixon was advised
to make it a point to go first for the hands of Mao in Geneva in 1955. Nixon did
likewise as he went ahead and held up Mao’s hands, as if to make up for the fact
that Zhou Enlai was insulted.
There is a
4,700-kilometre border with China, but you cannot defend every inch of
territory. Therefore, you have to have offensive strength in the conventional
context.
The historical
mindedness is very important—because we have China that cannot forget its 100
years of humiliation. And yet in India, we have been colonised, depending upon
when we consider our colonisation as having begun—for a millennia. Yet it does
not impact our mindset—we feel no shame, we feel no regret, we feel there was
nothing wrong. This in a sense defines us—as a people, perhaps as a nation. And
if we see comparatively how China defines itself then we would find ourselves as
deficient. So in this respect I think we act on the premise of
weakness.
You may have your
army strong, and as Gen Singh would back me up, we seem not to be able to
sustain our strength. As Gen Singh talked about an incident at a post in Eastern
Sector in 1987, how we established ourselves and our credibility with
Chinese—very frontal, very aggressive counter-measures. And yet I wouldn’t be
disclosing any secret if I were to say that the army today is weaker than that
it was in 1987—in disposition terms, in terms whether or not we can handle China
with the same alacrity, with the same force as we were able to do in 1987 in the
Eastern sector. Why is it that? In one sense because we don’t seem to have the
classical Halford Mackinder concept— Halford Mackinder was a great
geo-politician, geo-strategist. He emphasised that a statesman should have a
map-reading habit of mind, the geographical sense of a nation, which we don’t
seem to have.
When people say very
loosely, and I am talking about BJP, which is supposed to be very nationalistic,
that our security is civilisational, it does not mean anything, because you are
not rooting it in territory on the ground. On the other hand, Chinese are very
territorial minded. We may say, as our defence ministers have been saying since
the very beginning, and certainly since 1962, and the parliamentary resolution,
which says that we will regain every inch of territorial loss. If you recall,
that resolution still stands. It has not been outvoted or certainly not
withdrawn. And this term of every inch of territory, in military term and Gen
Singh will tell you, is nonsensical. You cannot guarantee the defence of every
inch of territory. The point ultimately is that: Are you able to be pro-active
in your defence? This every inch territory rhetoric has limited us rather than
expanded our views on security. Because when you say every inch of land, our
military naturally takes a cue from our politicians that every inch of land
means that they are going to be entrenched in defence and therefore you have
been virtually unprepared for any kind of offensive operation. And if all you
can do is defence, you are going to lose.
India is 76 per cent of
the geographical space of South Asia. It amounts to 76 per cent of national
income of South Asia. India accounts to 72 per cent population of South Asia,
yet we fear Pakistan!
There is a
4,700-kilometre border with China, but you cannot defend every inch of
territory. Therefore, you have to have offensive strength in the conventional
context. Hence, offensive mountain core is at the centre of it. Gen Singh had
pushed for it but now it has been again deprioritised—for reasons unknown.
Actually, just one mountain corps cannot help us, we need three mountain
cores—one for each sector, northern, central and eastern. But the Finance
Ministry, which the last I heard did not have the strategic sense, made negative
the idea of mountain corps, because the Finance Ministry said that China was no
threat in the foreseeable future! This you may have seen in the news reports.
And secondly, it said, India could not spare Rs 4060 thousand
crore!
Furthermore,
Pakistan is killing us both in military and political senses. I am not worried
about political aspect, but when two-third of Indian army is deployed against
Pakistan, and only one-third against China, it immediately sends the message of
a ridiculous threat perception. Pakistan is one-seventh the size of India. Or
let’s put the other way round, India is 76 per cent of the geographical space of
South Asia. It amounts to 76 per cent of national income of South Asia. India
accounts to 72 per cent population of South Asia, yet we fear Pakistan! We have
two-third of our military strength deployed against Pakistan! Instead of
deploying our switchable forces in the West, they are sent to the East. This is
where the additionality notion really works against us, because for the
military, I am sorry to say, everything is in addition to what it has. That’s
where the misuse of resources comes in.
We are classical
misusers of our resources. We seem unable to prioritise our threat. We are
unable to see the threat, in the first place, forget the priority. We go by some
sentimental notion of enmity, which is so nonsensical. For, we can easily cope
up with Pakistan and can devote our resources to the real threat that looms
large in the north, and in the east. But our sentimental passions get better of
us and we lose our strategic balance. There are policies that absolutely make no
sense. Therefore, we get very little respect in the word. If the country like
India keeps talking about Pakistan as a threat, then all it does is to reduce
our ability; it enhances Pakistan.
It is noteworthy that all big countries are
known by the enemies they keep. If Pakistan is our enemy, then we are reduced to
the size of Pakistan. That’s why I always maintain that Pakistani foreign and
military policies have been very successful, as they have reduced India to its
own size. This is really an axion of policies we missed out to.
This imbalance
is going to cost us plenty. For, we are virtually gifting political and
strategic weapons to the Chinese, that is why their nexus with Pakistan. They
have used it very beautifully by arming Pakistan with nuclear
missiles.
We may have all the
capabilities lined up, as is witnessed on Republic Day each year on the Raj
Path, but if we do not have a will to use them…
What should have
been our counter move? For 20 years I have been saying that our counter move
should be simply tit for tat,
whichever country that is on China’s periphery and
wants nuclear missiles, arm it with nuclear missiles. Arm Vietnam with nuclear
missiles, because that is one country China has great respect for.
Ultimately,
and I am sorry to say that because of our pacifist profession we have made a
habit of lowering ourselves. It is to be noted that military or national
reputation is made from military loss or defeat. We are still marked by 1962,
and for Pakistan, 1971 marks its lowest point.
We are so used to
downgrading hard power, as we often talk about Bengaluru, IIT, etc. We may have
all the capabilities lined up, as is witnessed on Republic Day each year on the
Raj Path, but if we do not have a will to use them, then our credibility is
reduced even further. This seems to be our position across the board—we are
talkers, not doers.
I end on this little
note—in 1982, Israel offered to join India in bombing Kahuta nuclear facility in
Pakistan. But we didn’t take it, despite Israelis saying that they would come in
their own planes. It may be remembered that in 1980, Israelis had bombed Iraq’s
nuclear facility. So they are experts in doing such work; they are not
amateurish, as they have done this job in the past. But we did not take that
option. Now we complain that Pakistan is a nuclear power. When the opportunity
arose, we did not take it, so why do we complain?
If we had taken a concrete
step then, this problem would not have arisen. That’s why, the Chinese, time and
again, exploit this weakness of ours. They do not take us seriously, as they
think we are only the talkers. We depend on rhetoric to the extent that we end
up weakening ourselves and we do not take hard options.
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Friday, April 26, 2013
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