Returning to the Land or Turning Toward the Sea? India's Role in America's Pivot
April 25, 2013
China's rise is pushing America and India closer. But are they focusing on the wrong set of challenges?
While
there were many reasons for the world's oldest democracy and the
world's largest democracy to mend fences, perhaps the most important
reason was the one that few officials could point
to in public: the rise of China.
In modern times, tensions between New Delhi and Beijing date back to their border war in 1962. In fact, the contested boundaries between these two powers are some of the only land border disputes that China has yet to resolve.
To keep up with Beijing's growing military power, India needs to modernize its armed forces, which means moving away from its reliance on Russian hardware and looking toward Europe and the United States.
Meanwhile, Washington is searching for ways to preserve its position in the Asia-Pacific as China's strength continues to increase. Having the region's other rising power on its side is a good place to start.
In modern times, tensions between New Delhi and Beijing date back to their border war in 1962. In fact, the contested boundaries between these two powers are some of the only land border disputes that China has yet to resolve.
To keep up with Beijing's growing military power, India needs to modernize its armed forces, which means moving away from its reliance on Russian hardware and looking toward Europe and the United States.
Meanwhile, Washington is searching for ways to preserve its position in the Asia-Pacific as China's strength continues to increase. Having the region's other rising power on its side is a good place to start.
If
a partnership between the United States and India makes sense on paper,
so far improved relations between the two nations have hardly been game
changing.
There are a host of explanations why the fruits of strategic collaboration have been relatively modest, from bureaucracies on both sides that have impeded potential arms sales, to broader considerations such as the fear of antagonizing China.
One important factor, though, is the mismatch between what the United States wants India to do and what New Delhi is best suited to do.
There are a host of explanations why the fruits of strategic collaboration have been relatively modest, from bureaucracies on both sides that have impeded potential arms sales, to broader considerations such as the fear of antagonizing China.
One important factor, though, is the mismatch between what the United States wants India to do and what New Delhi is best suited to do.
Proponents
of closer ties between Washington and New Delhi often view India as a
budding maritime power. As then Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
declared in 2010, India can be a net provider of security in the Indian Ocean and beyond.�
For example, with a bigger and better navy, India could help patrol
vital sea-lanes, deter or counter smuggling operations, combat piracy,
provide humanitarian assistance far from home, and respond quickly when
natural disasters strike. All of this could help
relieve some of the burdens shouldered by the U.S. Navy, which is
juggling its day-to-day role as a global security provider and first
responder with the longer-term challenge of a shifting military balance
in the Western Pacific. Not surprisingly, areas like counter-piracy and
humanitarian assistance are at the center of U.S.-India security cooperation today.
The
only problem is that India is not a maritime power: it is a land
power. To be sure, New Delhi is building and buying new ships and
submarines, and seems determined to bolster its naval capabilities,
which is hardly surprising given its location astride some of the
world's most important sea-lanes.
But the major military challenges it faces come from on shore, and the Indian Army continues to be the nation’s dominant military service in terms of size, influence, and budget share.
But the major military challenges it faces come from on shore, and the Indian Army continues to be the nation’s dominant military service in terms of size, influence, and budget share.
Assuming
that the underlying goal of closer U.S.-India ties is to help maintain a
stable balance of power across Asia, a larger Indian navy is likely to
have a marginal long-term impact. Actually, it could even be
counterproductive. The rivalry between China and India may have begun on
land, but it is starting to move into the maritime domain, particularly
as Beijing makes inroads with island and littoral nations in the Indian
Ocean while New Delhi continues to bolster its maritime capabilities.
Building a robust, blue water fleet that would enable India to project
maritime power throughout its region and beyond could give China an
added incentive to double-down on naval modernization, conduct more
deployments outside of East Asia, and perhaps develop a permanent
overseas military presence to secure its sea lines of communication
against the latent threat of Indian interdiction. Given the cost and
difficulties of fielding a large, modern, and effective naval force, as
well as the pull of more pressing security challenges on land, there is
no guarantee that India will succeed.
If the
current focus of U.S.-India security cooperation seems misplaced, how
should it be adapted, particularly if the United States is likely to be
engaged in a long-term, peacetime competition with China
for regional influence and positional advantage? The answer requires
bringing geopolitics back into the picture. While India has
traditionally been a continental power focused on threats along its land
borders, the same is
true of China. For example, it is surrounded by fourteen different
countries, including major powers and nuclear-armed nations. It
previously fought a series of border wars and conflicts, not only with
India but also against the Soviet Union and Vietnam. Its outlying
territories are populated by minority groups that pose a continuous
threat of internal unrest. And its access to the sea is limited by
island barriers and maritime chokepoints. In fact, the main reason that
China has been able to scale back the size of its ground forces and
invest in naval and aerospace capabilities over the past two decades is
that it hasn’t been distracted by serious land-based threats for the
first time in a long time. Nevertheless, China remains extremely sensitive about the security of its borders.
Washington
has a strong incentive to slow this trend if
possible. As Beijing’s need to spend money on ground units and
internal security forces declines, and as the bureaucratic clout of
these organizations diminishes, then China’s naval, air, and missile
forces are likely to get a growing slice of the resource pie. Yet these
are precisely the forces that pose the biggest danger to the United
States, its allies, and its interests abroad. Unfortunately, there is
little that the U.S. can do, at least by itself.
This is where India enters the equation. History tells us that in competitions between “whales� (maritime great powers like the United States) and “elephants� (rising continental powers like China), the former often need continental allies to counterbalance the latter.
Today, India is the only plausible candidate that might be able to distract China from its growing focus on naval and aerospace modernization and reinforce Beijing’s traditional focus on territorial defense.
This is where India enters the equation. History tells us that in competitions between “whales� (maritime great powers like the United States) and “elephants� (rising continental powers like China), the former often need continental allies to counterbalance the latter.
Today, India is the only plausible candidate that might be able to distract China from its growing focus on naval and aerospace modernization and reinforce Beijing’s traditional focus on territorial defense.
Interestingly,
India is already moving in this direction. In response to Beijing's
development of military and dual-use infrastructure, which could enable
it to deploy its forces to its frontiers more rapidly, New Delhi has
started to bolster its military presence near disputed borders:
refurbishing air fields, deploying its most advanced combat aircraft and land-attack cruise missiles to the region, and establishing a new mountain strike corps.
Additional efforts along these lines could drive Beijing to undertake a number of potentially expensive but relatively unthreatening measures, such as increasing the size of its ground and internal security forces, hardening local bases and transportation infrastructure, and putting a more robust air defense network in place to the southwest.
refurbishing air fields, deploying its most advanced combat aircraft and land-attack cruise missiles to the region, and establishing a new mountain strike corps.
Additional efforts along these lines could drive Beijing to undertake a number of potentially expensive but relatively unthreatening measures, such as increasing the size of its ground and internal security forces, hardening local bases and transportation infrastructure, and putting a more robust air defense network in place to the southwest.
If
New Delhi does continue its military buildup along its northern
borders, it should concentrate its efforts on deploying air and missile
forces, for several reasons.
- First, in comparison to deploying additional infantry or light armor units, air and missile forces would help offset its geographic disadvantage, namely China’s command of the Himalayan plateau (and India's tenuous lines of communications.)
- Second, forward deployed air and missile forces would reduce the need for investments in the costly but vulnerable ground transportation infrastructure necessary to deploy units from interior garrisons to northern bases. (IN VERY HIGH MOUNTAINS)
- Lastly, air and missile forces are particularly useful for denying an enemy’s advance by holding at risk staging areas and supply lines.
- Therefore they would still contribute to deterrence and cost-imposition, but would be much less escalatory than forces that could be used to seize and hold territory, like India's new mountain strike corps.
For
its part, the United States could support India in a variety of ways,
from sharing intelligence about Chinese troop deployments near border
areas to selling India capabilities such as aerial surveillance systems,
intra-theater lift capabilities, and perhaps eventually stealthy combat
aircraft that would pose additional burdens on China to establish
control of the skies and defend its
airspace.
In the end, India is unlikely to appreciate the
idea of being a frontline state in a broader Sino-American competition.
Yet geography, territorial disputes, the imperative to balance against a
rising power on its doorstep, and broader changes in the global balance
of power are putting it in that position.
The real question, then, is whether it should emphasize balancing China on land or at sea.
Comment: The above write up enunciates the American perspective. India needs to lay stress on all the three Defence Forces ie Army (since we have a very long disputed border), the Navy to control the Indian Ocean) and the Air Force to ensure a healthy air environment and hit strategic targets.
A conventionally weaker nation should use the deterrence offered by Nuclear and Missile Forces to deter the stronger adversary as Pakistan is doing to India. India needs to go whole hog to develop next generation nuclear weapons for strategic and even tactical use in and across the Himalayas.
India also needs to modify its Nuclear Doctrine and say unequivocally that in case the Himalayas are threatened, India will consider use of tactical nuclear weapons against attacking forces.
It is time India started to show its muscle and not become more and more a SOFT STATE.
Harbhajan Singh
Lt Gen
The real question, then, is whether it should emphasize balancing China on land or at sea.
Comment: The above write up enunciates the American perspective. India needs to lay stress on all the three Defence Forces ie Army (since we have a very long disputed border), the Navy to control the Indian Ocean) and the Air Force to ensure a healthy air environment and hit strategic targets.
A conventionally weaker nation should use the deterrence offered by Nuclear and Missile Forces to deter the stronger adversary as Pakistan is doing to India. India needs to go whole hog to develop next generation nuclear weapons for strategic and even tactical use in and across the Himalayas.
India also needs to modify its Nuclear Doctrine and say unequivocally that in case the Himalayas are threatened, India will consider use of tactical nuclear weapons against attacking forces.
It is time India started to show its muscle and not become more and more a SOFT STATE.
Harbhajan Singh
Lt Gen
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