The dragon gets a bear hug
Vladimir Radyuhin
The Hindu--
Russia supplying China with weapon platforms more powerful than
Russian-built systems India has in its arsenals reverses what was the
rule in the past.
Russia and China are revitalising defence
ties at a time when relations of both with the U.S. have run into rough
waters. Russia is resuming the supply of advanced weapon platforms to
China in a move that may have implications for India.
At
the end of last year, Russia concluded a framework agreement with China
for the sale of four Amur-1650 diesel submarines. In January it signed
another intergovernmental agreement for the supply of Russia’s latest
Su-35 long-range fighter planes.
If the deals go through, it will be for the first time in a decade that Russia has delivered offensive weapons to China. It
will also mark the first time that Russia has supplied China with more
powerful weapon platforms compared with Russian-built systems India has
in its arsenals. In the past, the opposite was the rule.
For
example, the Su-30MKK jet fighters Russia sold to China were no match
for the Su-30MKIs supplied to India at about the same time. The Chinese
planes had an inferior radar and without the thrust vectoring engines
the Indian version had.
This time the situation looks
reversed. The Amur-1650 submarine is far more silent and powerful than
the Kilo-class submarines the Indian Navy has in its inventory. India’s
Su-30MKI will be no match for China’s Su-35 which is powered by a higher
thrust engine and boasts a more sophisticated radar, avionics and
weapons, according to a leading Russian military expert, Konstantin
Makienko.
China’s acquisition of the Su-35 will also question the wisdom of India’s plan to buy the French Rafale, the expert said. “The
sale of Su-35s to China will shoot down the value of the Rafale for
India,” Mr. Makienko, who is deputy head of Russia’s top defence think
tank, Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told The Hindu.
“The
Rafale will stand no chance against China’s Su-35,” the expert
explained. “The Su-35’s Irbis radar has more than twice the detection
range of the Rafale’s Thales RBE2, and will lock onto its target well
before the Russian plane becomes visible for a retaliatory strike. The
117S engines of the Su-35 are also far more powerful than the Rafale’s
Snecma M88.”
The Russian Air Force is just beginning
to take delivery of the new aircraft and China may become the first
country to import it. The relatively small number of Su-35s China plans
to buy, 24, should not deceive anyone, Mr. Makienko said. China followed
the same buying pattern for the Su-27, initially ordering 24 planes and
ending up with more than 200 Su-27s and its licence-built version, the
J-11.
The supply to China of more advanced weapon
platforms than those available to India appears to contradict some basic
geopolitical realities. India remains Russia’s most trusted partner
whose defence requirements have never been refused. By contrast, Russia
has always been apprehensive of the Chinese dragon and suspicious of its
intentions towards resource-rich and population-poor Siberia.
(Comment:
True but India did not choose Russian Fighter and went for Rafal. India
is also buying US made helicopters and transport planes!!)
Calls for restraint
There
is consensus in the Russian strategic community that Moscow should
exercise maximum restraint in providing China with advanced military
technologies. Experts were shocked to find out that Chinese engineers
had mastered the production of clones of most weapon systems
cash-strapped Russia supplied to China in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Russian
arms sales to China plummeted in recent years as China switched to
domestic production, while Moscow became more cautious in offering
Beijing cutting-edge technologies. Not only did China illegally copy
Russian weapon systems, but it also began to export those undercutting
Russian sales of higher-priced original platforms.
Some
experts even called for a complete halt to arms sales to China, arguing
that demographic pressures and a growing need of resources may one day
push China to turn Russian weapons against Russia. “We
should stop selling them the rope to hang us with,” warned Alexander
Khramchikhin of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis.
However,
the risks of selling advanced weapons to China took a back seat in
Moscow’s calculations after Vladimir Putin returned to the Kremlin for a
third term a year ago. Last year, Russia’s state arms exporter,
Rosoboronexport, signed contracts with China worth $2.1-billion, the
company’s head Anatoly Isaikin said recently. The renewal of
sophisticated weapon supplies to China should be seen in the context of
geopolitical games in the China-U.S.-Russia triangle.
“The
balance of power between America and China will to a large extend
depend on whether and on which side Russia will play,” said Fyodor
Lukyanov, foreign policy analyst.
Russia and China
are revitalising defence ties at a time when their relations with the
U.S. have run into rough waters. Moscow is deeply disappointed with Mr.
Obama’s policy of “reset,” which is seen in Moscow as a U.S. instrument
of winning unilateral concessions from Russia, while Beijing views Mr.
Obama’s strategic redeployment in the Asia-Pacific region as aimed at
containing China.
Profit motives
Russian
defence sales to China are also driven by profit motives as arms
manufacturers seek to compensate for the recent loss of several
lucrative contracts in India, where they face growing competition from
the U.S., Europe and Israel. Also, Moscow seems to be less concerned
today about the so-called “reverse engineering” of Russian weapons in
China as the ability of the Chinese industry to copy critical
technologies appears to have been overrated.
“China’s
programme of developing the J-11B family of aircraft based on the Su-27
platform has run into problems,” said Vasily Kashin, expert on China.
“China’s aircraft engines, which are essentially modified version of
Russian engines, are way too inferior to the originals and China
continues to depend on the supply of Russian engines.” In
the past three-four years, China has bought over 1,000 aircraft engines
from Russia and is expected to place more orders in coming years.
“When
and if China succeeds in copying Russia’s new weapon platforms the
Russian industry will hopefully move ahead with new technologies,” Mr.
Kashin said.
India can also easily offset the advantage that new Russian arms supplies may give China, experts said. “To
retain its edge in military aviation, India needs to speed up the
development of a 5th-generation fighter plane with Russia and go for
in-depth upgrade of its fleet of Su-30MKI fighters,” Mr. Makienko said.
Trade differences
However,
the resumption of massive Russian arms supplies to China could still be
a cause for concern in India. Closer defence ties between Moscow and
Beijing are an offshoot of strong dynamics of their overall relations.
China is Russia’s top commercial partner, with bilateral trade expected
to touch $90 billion this year and soar to $200 billion by 2020. Mr.
Putin has described China’s rise as “a chance to catch the Chinese wind
in the sails of our economy.”
This contrasts with
sluggish trade between India and Russia, which stood at $11 billion last
year; even the target of $20 billion the two governments set for 2015
falls short on ambition. India risks being eclipsed by China on the
Russian radar screens. As Russia’s top business daily Kommersant noted
recently, even today, Russian officials from top to bottom tend to look
at India with “drowsy apathy,” while Mr. Putin’s visit to India last
year was long on “meaningless protocol” and short on time and substance.
Keywords: BRICS summit, Xi Jinping, Russia-China ties, U.S.-Russia talks, Syria civil
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