New chapter, old challenges (Indo-China relations)
AP ONE
ON ONE: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may not raise contentious issues
during his brief meeting with Mr. Xi Jinping, which is unlikely to see
the leaders engage on specifics.
President
Xi Jinping is expected to hold his first meeting as China’s new leader
with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh this week, along
the sidelines of the March 26 BRICS Summit in South Africa. The talks —
they are expected to be a brief event according to officials in
Beijing, who cited the limitations of Mr. Xi’s “tight schedule” — will
mark India’s first major engagement with the new Chinese leadership,
which took over following the conclusion of the National People’s
Congress, or Parliament, on March 17.
China’s
new leaders have, as yet, given little indication of how they plan to
take ties with India forward. Mr. Xi, in his first interview after
taking over as President, outlined a “five-point proposal” to improve
relations with India, when he met with a group of journalists from the
BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in
Beijing on March 19.
Mr.
Xi’s proposal had little in the way of specifics, and did not offer new
ideas. The five proposals called for: maintaining strategic
communication and keeping ties on the right track; expanding cooperation
in infrastructure and mutual investment; strengthening cultural ties;
increasing coordination on multilateral affairs; and “accommodating each
other’s core concerns” to “properly handle differences.”
If
anything can be gleaned from Mr. Xi’s remarks, it is that the new
leadership is yet to devote its full attention to ties with India. The
“five points” Mr. Xi listed were, in fact, almost entirely similar to
the five-pronged proposal made by his predecessor, Hu Jintao, during a
visit to India one year ago, for the BRICS Summit in New Delhi. Since
taking over as the Communist Party of China’s (CPC)
General Secretary in November last year, it is clear that Mr. Xi, and
the top leadership, have been preoccupied with the transition at home.
On the foreign policy front as well, India does not figure high on the
list of Beijing’s current priorities.
Continuity
China’s
present focus is largely on the United States – particularly, its
“pivot” or rebalancing towards Asia — and Japan, following recent
tensions over the disputed Diaoyu or Senkaku islands in the East China
Sea. Analysts in Beijing see the annual press conference given by the
Chinese Foreign Minister as a somewhat inexact indicator of China’s
current foreign policy priorities. The briefing given by outgoing
Foreign Minister Yang
Jiechi in Beijing on March 9, a carefully choreographed affair in which
the questions were arranged weeks in advance, focused primarily on
China’s relations with the U.S., Japan and Russia, the destination of
Mr. Xi’s first overseas State visit. Other areas that found specific
mention were the tensions on the Korean peninsula, ties with Africa, the
Syrian crisis and relations with Asean.
Chinese
foreign policy analysts acknowledge that India may not be high on the
list of China’s present diplomatic priorities. This, they suggest, is
not entirely a bad thing, and is more a reflection of the increasingly
stable nature of the relationship rather than a lack of interest.
Chinese officials point out that only three years ago, ties were
persistently tested with recurring differences over the boundary dispute
and Tibet. In 2009, for instance,
regular reports in India described aggressive patrolling and
“incursions” by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in border areas,
while in China, anger over exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai
Lama’s visit to Tawang cast a shadow on ties. Four years on, both issues
have appeared to have become less of an irritant, and relations are
certainly more stable. As Hu Shisheng, a leading South Asia strategic
analyst at the China Institutes for Contemporary International Relations
in Beijing puts it, “India-China relations are not [in a state of]
disturbance,” even if they are secondary to other more pressing
concerns.
As a key partner
The CPC’s official newspaper, the People’s Daily, recently suggested there are
two areas where China now sees its main interests with India. A recent
editorial pointed to the border issue being “controlled effectively” and
an increasing focus on trade and multilateral issues as heralding “a
new chapter” in ties. The newspaper argued that a new focus on trade
frictions was, in fact, a welcome sign that a relationship historically
burdened by strategic mistrust was now becoming more “normal.”
For
Chinese companies, India has certainly emerged as an increasingly
important destination for investment and project contracts, particularly
in the power and telecom sectors. According to the Indian Embassy in
Beijing, Chinese companies are executing $55 billion worth of projects
in India — more than in any other country. China also sees India as an
important
partner on multilateral issues like trade and climate change. Coming
under increasing pressure from the West to take on more responsibility
as the second largest economy and single biggest emitter of greenhouse
gases, China stands to gain by aligning itself with other developing
countries. Mr. Xi suggested as much in his proposal: his third
recommendation called on both countries to “jointly safeguard the
legitimate rights and interests of developing countries.”
Core concerns
Mr.
Xi, in his proposal, also called for both countries to “accommodate
each other’s core concerns.” How both countries will do so remains to be
seen: they have recently followed an approach that has sought to
“manage”
— if not simply ignore — outstanding differences on difficult core
concerns, rather than seek to engage on those issues. For China, the
Tibetan issue ranks highest in terms of its concerns. India’s crackdown
on Tibetan protests in April last year during the visit of Hu Jintao to
New Delhi eased Chinese anxieties, even as the heavy-handed approach by
the police faced criticism from both rights groups in India and from the
exiled Tibetan community.
China,
for its part, has appeared less willing to deal with thorny issues such
as transboundary rivers or its continuing projects in Pakistan-occupied
Kashmir (PoK). China’s recent approval for three new dams on the
Brahmaputra were reported to have caught Indian officials by surprise,
not finding mention in recent talks, even if the projects are
run-of-the-river dams that might not significantly
impact downstream flows. China has also appeared to continue with its
investments and projects in PoK, maintaining that its involvement was
without prejudice to India’s dispute with Pakistan. It has, however,
sought to mollify India’s concerns on Kashmir by quietly withdrawing its
issuing of “stapled visas.” Dr. Singh may not raise these contentious
issues during his brief meeting with Mr. Xi, which is unlikely to see
the leaders engage on specifics.
Next
month’s expected visit of Defence Minister A.K. Antony to China will
provide a platform to mark the real start of engagement with Beijing’s
new leadership, and will shed some light on how a new chapter in ties
will begin to confront old challenges.
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