Formation of Afghanistan,Pakistan,China trilateral spells danger
for India
by Lt Gen Prakash Katoch 3/12/2012
According to the
Chinese science of strategy, national interest is both the starting point and
destination of military strategy.
…she had already
inducted 15,000 Chinese in Afghanistan in year 2001 before the US invasion in
Afghanistan got fully underway.
As part of her
military strategy, China is vigorously employing soft power in foreign countries
by surreptitiously inducting People’s Liberation Army (PLA) under garb of
development projects. China’s strategic footprints in Pakistan and POK may have
come in recent times but she had already inducted 15,000 Chinese in Afghanistan
in year 2001 before the US invasion in Afghanistan got fully underway. Presence
of some three million Chinese in Myanmar is well known and so is presence of
Chinese nationals in India’s neighbors including recent surge in Sri Lanka where
it is believed that company strength of PLA is disguised as development workers
in Hambantota.
These are strategic
moves that enable both enlargement of the economic agenda and a switch when
required.
China views
Afghanistan as a challenge against the US to influence Eurasia and build energy
based Eurasian Security Architecture. Chinese scholars have been talking of an
Asian Collective Defence Alliance based on SCO members and the CSTO (Collective
Security Treaty Organisation) headed by Russia.
There have also been
articles in Chinese media on forming the Pamir Group (China-Afghan-Pak
Trilateral) with Chinese investments integrating AfPak and China through a
quadrilateral freight railroad from Xinjiang through Tajikistan to Pakistan’s
Gwadar Port. China may not openly commit troops in Afghanistan but can employ
the Rapid Reaction Force (RRF) if and when required to defend Chinese
assets.
…will ensure steps to
secure its economic interests in Afghanistan as 2014
approaches
For this reason, she
is developing communication infrastructure conducive to quick deployment; PLA is
constructing a 75 km road extending 10 km inside Afghanistan through the Wakhan
Corridor. China perceives a more active role for herself in reconstruction and
development of Afghanistan and will ensure steps to secure its economic
interests in Afghanistan as 2014 approaches and beyond.
It is for the same
reason that China developed ties with the Taliban; training Taliban in Xinjiang
before the US invasion, providing training in handling IR SAMs (2010 media
report) and military advisors advising Taliban how to fight the NATO led ISAF.
This should be no surprise since China had provided sanctuary to ULFA post their
rout from Bhutan and is currently supplying arms to Indian Maoists and PLA in
Manipur through Kachen rebels in Myanmar.
Post 2014, Taliban
(supported by Pakistan) would likely aim to capture Kunduz and Jalalabad first
in order to provide depth to the Chinese road through the Wakhan
Corridor.
Utopians in India are
jubilant that Pakistan has made peace with India. Nothing in reality can be
farther from the truth. ….
Agha Amin, defence
analyst and former Pakistan army officer writes, “Utopians in India are jubilant
that Pakistan has made peace with India. Nothing in reality can be farther from
the truth. …..The real picture of true intentions of the Pakistani military will
emerge when the US withdraws from Afghanistan. This will be the time when the
Russians, Iranians and Indians will have no choice but to support the Northern
Alliance against Pakistan sponsored Taliban who regard all Shias, Ismailis,
non-Pashtuns, moderate Pashtuns as infidels who deserve to be massacred…
Pakistani politicians will remain the puppets of the military; terrorism will
remain a tool of foreign policy while the Pakistani military runs the Pakistani
state under a facade of PPP or PML or Tehrik-i-Insaaf.
Pakistani military
will be hoping to achieve all its objectives: an extremist dominated
Afghanistan; a Baluchistan fully fragmented and crushed; a Pakistani political
party leading Pakistan fully subservient to the Pakistani military; renewed
infiltration in Kashmir; brinkman’s nuclear policy with India; a greater Chinese
vassal with far greater Chinese interests in Pakistan… There is no doubt that
Pakistan will be a semi autonomous Chinese province by 2030 or so… Pakistani
Baluchistan by 2030 would be a completely Chinese run show… This means that
Pakistan’s… ever growing reservoir of economically deprived youngsters who will
fill ranks of extremists and suicide bombers will continue”.
…the US and NATO are
thrown out of the region; India’s land route to Afghanistan / CAR is effectively
blocked or becomes contingent upon Chinese terms;
China has solidified
her stakes in Kabul by inducting Afghanistan as an observer state in SCO. The
likely China-Pakistan collusive strategy with respect to Afghanistan post 2014
is likely to be as follows: Pakistan backed Taliban get control of maximum areas
of Afghanistan; Pakistan gets her cherished ‘strategic depth’; Kabul Government
becomes a Chinese protégé; China becomes the bridge between Afghanistan-Taliban
and Afghanistan-Iran; China and Pakistan reap the benefits of Afghanistan
reconstruction – lion’s share going to China; the US and NATO are thrown out of
the region; India’s land route to Afghanistan / CAR is effectively blocked or
becomes contingent upon Chinese terms; China gains global prominence and clout
to deal more aggressively with South China Sea, IOR, Taiwan, India, Bhutan and
other neighbours. Afghanistan not being a ‘soft’ state and the Afghan National
Army having considerably enlarged in numbers and combat potential over the last
four years, there is no guarantee this (China-Pakistan) policy will succeed but
if it does, Robert Blackwill’s recommendation to divide Afghanistan would
inadvertently come into effect.
…there is no guarantee
this (China-Pakistan) policy will succeed but if it does, Robert Blackwill’s
recommendation to divide Afghanistan would inadvertently come into
effect.
Hasham Baber,
Additional Secretary General, Awami National Party, Peshawar, Pakistan wrote in
November last: “We have seen the consequences of post withdrawal of the Russian
forces from Afghanistan in 1989. One would shudder at the very thought of it if
Afghanistan is abandoned in a similar manner. The stability of Afghanistan is,
in the first place, a regional responsibility coupled with an active role of the
US under a UN mandate. We need a stable, peaceful and governable modern
Afghanistan with all the requisite state institutions in place. We need an
uninterrupted reconstruction process in Afghanistan.”
The future of
Afghanistan, post 2014, the Afghan National Army must have adequate artillery
and air support, plus requisite intelligence and PGM support (Predators)
included, by their residual forces to stem the tide of the Taliban beefed up
with disguised Pakistani forces, should that happen.
Obsessed with
‘strategic depth’ and Kayani openly declaring he ‘wants India out of
Afghanistan’, Pakistan will likely continue with its double game, egged on by
China. Inaction in acting against the Haqqani network apart, the freedom with
which Haqqanis move around in Pakistan is proof enough. Ushering true democracy
in Pakistan has little chance with the polity-bureaucracy taken hostage by the
military-judiciary combine – as Pakistani media admits.
India needs to
carefully weigh all options.
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