A Great Game Of Spear And Shield
As America draws down its
forces from Afghanistan, Pakistan will lose the leverage it has hitherto held on
US policy by virtue of its control of the primary supply routes into that
troubled country. This creates the prospect for a more mature and evenly
balanced US-Pakistan relationship in which US policy concentrates not on buying
off the Pakistani military, but instead on strengthening the development of
Pakistani civilian institutions. US policy must not
rehyphenate India and Pakistan, but rather pursue independent policies
towards both countries that do not allow one country to hold US policy towards
the other hostage.
Given America’s own stake in improving relations with a rising China, it is imperative for New Delhi and Washington to put in place joint concepts of operations and pursue joint planning for a range of scenarios related to Chinese activities in Asia.
And it is essential for the US and India to work together in regional and international institutions to ensure that they uphold basic international standards. Our countries can also enjoy the multiplier effects of concerting with other like-minded Asian states, including Japan, America’s most important Asian ally and a growing partner for India.
AFP (From Outlook 12 November 2012)
US scale-down in Afghanistan leaves a void
in Asian security
opinion
A Great Game Of Spear And Shield
A deepening of America’s ties with India will trigger
shifts in the power paradigm in the age of China
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http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?282847
South
Asia contains one of America’s most important long-term partners in sustaining a
global order safe for the interests and values of free societies, India, as
well as a fragile, nuclear-armed state in Pakistan whose weakening and
radicalisation could be more consequential for American security interests than
nearly any other single contingency. The region also contains a country,
Afghanistan, that may not be the centre of Asia but is a centre of strategic
competition among key Asian powers and has cost the West a decade of war to
defeat extremism and build lasting stability.
Over the coming four years, US leadership to shape this region will be
essential, for both positive and negative reasons. Positively, the consolidation
of a wide-ranging strategic partnership with India could change the course of
history in the 21st century by establishing lasting habits of cooperation
between the world’s largest democracies. Negatively, US
leadership is essential to prevent Pakistan’s many pathologies—state complicity
in terrorism, weak institutions, a foreign policy that exports insecurity among
others—from spilling over in ways that undermine fundamental US (and Indian)
interests in the future of Afghanistan, non-proliferation, the defeat of
terrorism and the dampening of extremism.
India is still in the process of casting off its legacy
of non-alignment and statist economics. But its leaders have identified
the US as a vital partner for India in the long term, just as American leaders
have pursued a revolutionary strategic partnership with India with an eye on
shaping the future balance of power and values in the international system.
The US and India share a convergence of interests across the spectrum.
The US and India share a convergence of interests across the spectrum.
- Both seek to balance growing Chinese power and influence in Asia to encourage China’s peaceful rise.
- Both want to defeat terrorism, moderate extremism and promote democratic state-building in South Asia, especially in Pakistan and Afghanistan, to ensure that responsible governments rule with a focus on internal development rather than fomenting external insecurity.
- Both want to ensure freedom of the maritime commons in the Indian Ocean, across which most world trade in energy flows.
- Both want to strengthen an open and liberal international economy in ways that will fuel their knowledge, technology and manufacturing sectors.
The next US administration can work with India to take
bilateral relations to the next level. This should start with a specific
agenda to deepen the underdeveloped economic relationship between the two
countries through robust investment and free trade
agreements—matched by expanded opportunities for people-to-people ties in
mutually rewarding commerce, education and research. Washington and New Delhi can cooperate more intimately on
Afghanistan, the Arab Awakening, missile defence, maritime security in the
Indian Ocean, East Asian security with partners like Japan, and in multilateral
institutions like the UN.
The overall objective of Indo-US alignment on the key
issues facing our societies would be the construction of a preponderance of
democratic power in Asia and the international system—with the US-India
partnership at its core.
India need not abandon “strategic autonomy” as part of closer US ties. On the contrary, American investment, training, trade and military sales are all designed to make India stronger and more prosperous.
Only a strong and successful India can be strategically autonomous, given the growing challenges posed by its dangerous neighbourhood.
India need not abandon “strategic autonomy” as part of closer US ties. On the contrary, American investment, training, trade and military sales are all designed to make India stronger and more prosperous.
Only a strong and successful India can be strategically autonomous, given the growing challenges posed by its dangerous neighbourhood.
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The US may want to focus more on strengthening Pakistan’s economy and, in
particular, its deficient energy sector, as a way to offset the rise of
radicalism associated with the country’s chronic economic crises and to build
goodwill among a population that is fervently anti-American. Liberalisation of
trade, including duty-free treatment of Pakistani textiles into the US, will be
as important (if not more important) than official assistance in this regard.
India can play the leading role here by further lifting restrictions on trade
and visas with an eye on strengthening Pakistan’s moderate majority that opposes
the militarisation and radicalisation of the state and its foreign
policies.
In Afghanistan, the next American administration will
need to fill out the existing strategic partnership agreement with a commitment
to keep substantial US forces in-country: to train Afghan forces, contain
Taliban attacks against state institutions, keep insurgents in Pakistan
off-balance and ensure that neighbouring powers with predatory designs do not
fill a vacuum that would otherwise be left by US retreat. Afghanistan’s
2014 elections will be pivotal to the post-Western dispensation of the
country, and US engagement with friends like India will be key to ensuring that
the gains the country has made over the past decade are sustainable.
International support for Afghanistan will also be instrumental to helping
it build a self-sustaining economy not dependent on foreign aid. In this regard, Afghanistan can serve as a gateway for South Asian
trade and investment with Central Asia. Joint American and Indian
approaches to the states of Central Asia can help that region sustain its
independence from its neighbouring great powers.
Central Asia could also be pivotal to India’s ability to secure energy resources to drive an economy that is expected to grow rapidly. And crucially, the more moderate states of Central Asia also play an essential, if often unrecognised, role in containing the export of Pakistani extremism.
Central Asia could also be pivotal to India’s ability to secure energy resources to drive an economy that is expected to grow rapidly. And crucially, the more moderate states of Central Asia also play an essential, if often unrecognised, role in containing the export of Pakistani extremism.
American policy, often working on parallel lines with India’s, can
contribute to the process of democratic state-building and
free-market economic growth in the other key South Asian states of Bangladesh,
Nepal and Sri Lanka, all of whom are underdeveloped, post-conflict
societies in which the military plays a strong role. Bangladesh is especially
promising as a potential partner for greater US engagement. Goldman Sachs has
identified Bangladesh as one of its “N-11” economies or next-generation BRICS.
Differentiated partnerships with both New Delhi and Washington will be critical
to helping Bangladesh consolidate these gains and join India as part of a “South
Asian miracle” of the kind East Asian economies have experienced.
Beyond the many affinities that link the American and Indian people, and
the many interests that compel their governments to pursue closer cooperation,
India and the US have a vital role to play in ensuring that Asia remains pluralistic and free rather than Sino-centric. India’s rise requires China to be more cautious in its support of Pakistan—because Beijing now has more to lose from pursuing policies that undermine Indian interests.
A closer Indo-US alignment would also give China a greater stake in stabilising its own fluctuating relations with India—because Chinese military threats and territorial revanchism risk putting China on a path to conflict not only with India, but with its American friends.
India and the US have a vital role to play in ensuring that Asia remains pluralistic and free rather than Sino-centric. India’s rise requires China to be more cautious in its support of Pakistan—because Beijing now has more to lose from pursuing policies that undermine Indian interests.
A closer Indo-US alignment would also give China a greater stake in stabilising its own fluctuating relations with India—because Chinese military threats and territorial revanchism risk putting China on a path to conflict not only with India, but with its American friends.
Given America’s own stake in improving relations with a rising China, it is imperative for New Delhi and Washington to put in place joint concepts of operations and pursue joint planning for a range of scenarios related to Chinese activities in Asia.
And it is essential for the US and India to work together in regional and international institutions to ensure that they uphold basic international standards. Our countries can also enjoy the multiplier effects of concerting with other like-minded Asian states, including Japan, America’s most important Asian ally and a growing partner for India.
Looking ahead, the prospects for American renewal and Indian reform could
recast the global balance of power and values in ways that make our two
countries, more than China, the leaders of the 21st century.
(Daniel Twining is Senior Fellow for Asia at the German Marshall Fund
of the United States and a former member of the US Secretary of State’s Policy
Planning Staff responsible for South
Asia.)
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