How to check China
Date : 06 Oct , 2012
China is apparently acting out a role as a regional
bully: it stakes claims to large tracts of Indian territory; contests ownership
of the Spratly isles with the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and even
tiny Brunei. Its latest shenanigans include claiming sovereignty over Senkaku
islands held by Japan. China threatened an Indian naval vessel in the South
China Sea. And now, save for Cambodia among the ASEAN countries, the rest are
seeking to present a united front against China in resolving claims in the South
China Sea. The USA’s military policy and diplomacy now seems directed only
against China, a step that the Chinese are secretly proud off, since they have
replaced the former Soviet Union and current Russia as the most dangerous nation
for USA, a designation and title that gives the Chinese prominence and
attention, which they have craved for over a century. China simply likes to be
regarded with fear in the world, quite contrary to any modern preferred
psychological philosophy.
China, an ancient civilization with a creative past, has
come to suffer through its communist regime from a severe inferiority complex
after humiliation at the hands of the West in the 19th century, and
seeks to dominate the world, as clearly expressed in Mao’s Little Red
Book.
But, China doesn’t stop there: it makes friends with all
the dictators and autocratic regimes of the world: North Korea, Syria, Iran,
Zimbabwe, Sudan, and other African countries. All these countries severely
suppress human rights on their soil. Till a while ago, it heavily propped
dictatorial Myanmar, and assisted Maoist Nepal; and even now supports
now-autocratic-now-democratic Pakistan, which exhibits bipolar characteristics
every day. China has suppressed Tibet and Sinkiang with an iron boot, and puts
the fear of communism into its own otherwise wonderful people. China, an
ancient civilization with a creative past, has come to suffer through its
communist regime from a severe inferiority complex after humiliation at the
hands of the West in the 19th century, and seeks to dominate the
world, as clearly expressed in Mao’s Little Red Book. None of this is healthy
for the world, and suspicions of China’s intentions among the rest of the world
are but natural. In addition, China is doing nothing to allay such fears, but
is instead becoming more aggressive as it finds greater strength in its new
found economic and military muscle. Obviously, China’s actions simply add fuel
to the fire, and distrust of China mounts.
World alliances are simply but surely shaping up and
taking root, though everyone is careful to say that none of those alliances are
meant to “contain” China, fearing that China is capable of irrational behavior
and reaction. But the very perception that China, like Iran, could be
irrational is enough to bring those nations together that feel threatened by
China. As much as China says that its neighbors and world have nothing to fear
from China, its actions simply speak otherwise, and neighbors would ignore
China’s body language only to their peril.
Hence, while Japan, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan,
Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, and distant India come together with the United
States in unstated alliances, China shores up with Pakistan, nuclear-armed North
Korea, and soon-to-be nuclear Iran. Hence, the lines of distinction between the
allied and axis powers become clearer every day. NATO goes where USA goes, and
in this regard it is noteworthy that the European Union has denied military
technology to China, though they are talking of a free trade agreement with
China, at the present. Russia is the wild card in this equation, being friendly
with anyone who will buy its weapons, a peddler in every respect, selling itself
to the highest bidder while it barely tolerates the West, and manages to survive
with China as an unreliable neighbor. What will Russia do, for instance, if
China invades Siberia for all its mineral resources? Start a nuclear war with
China that is unwinnable? China’s military strength and numerical superiority
far exceed Russia’s, and taking Siberia may be only a two-week military
adventure for China. For now, Russia hopes to thwart China with feigned threats
of nuclear retaliation.
If the USA had allowed India to dismantle Pakistan in
1971, as was possible – or retake Kashmir, which was easier – the story today
vis-à-vis Afghanistan could have been entirely different.
Russia is torn between India as a long-time partner and
China as a noveau-rich buyer of resources and products from Russia. Russia also
currently feels torn between the liberties of the Western world that everybody
in the world cherishes and the traditional socialistic communism on which it was
founded that ensures food on the table of Russians. However, Russia would do
well if it could simply pull itself together rather than interfering in world
politics.
Though the combined strength of the axis powers is
virtually nothing compared to the united strength of the allied powers, the
blood and damage of a world war is not a very palatable outcome for even the
stronger parties. But, with USA’s Pacific fleet directed full force against a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or a China-supported invasion of South Korea by
North Korea, or a Chinese attempt to takeover erstwhile islands from the
Japanese, what can be done to reduce China’s powers?
Anyone knows that friends, brothers, and cousins all add
to the strength of individuals, groups, and nations. In earlier centuries,
kings married their children into other kingdoms to enhance alliances and
treaties, in the event that military assistance was required in time of war.
Today, China depends on North Korea, Syria, Iran, and Sudan to fritter the
energies of the West, and depends on Pakistan to keep another perceived rival,
India, under check. Naturally, if allies are reduced—if the number of friends
and those in support of your group diminish—the net power of the group is
reduced. To reduce the strength of the stated axis powers, it is necessary to
take them down one at a time.
Sudan has already been split in two, Syria is in deep
trouble, and Israel is keeping Iran busy and sweating. Myanmar is being brought
back to the Western fold. Thus, significant action is being taken by the West
in checking these axis powers, but Pakistan is a complex and convoluted story,
which often seems to slip away from Indian and Western grasps. In the past,
Pakistan slipped away from India’s wrath largely because of US support, and even
today, like in the past ten years, USA wants to check Pakistan all on its own,
which it is unable to do. If the USA had allowed India to dismantle Pakistan in
1971, as was possible – or retake Kashmir, which was easier – the story today
vis-à-vis Afghanistan could have been entirely different. Remember, Atal
Vajpayee was the first foreign leader to call George W. Bush and offer help to
USA. If India had Kashmir, the USA could have used Northern Kashmir as a base
for entering Afghanistan. The USA would not have had to beg the Central Asian
republics, or haggle with Pakistan over the overland route through Baluchistan.
Nations, like people, must sleep in the bed they make for themselves. So it is
with the USA that must now suffer its decisions of earlier decades. All this
has now proven that India was a better bet all along for the USA than Pakistan,
which is why successive US regimes since George W. Bush have come around towards
India. The unfortunate reality of the current show is that Pakistan realizes
that it is the one in the long term that will make USA spin around, rather than
the other way around. So far, given the fact that the USA wishes to withdraw
from Afghanistan in 2014, Pakistan has simply to bide its time till it unleashes
itself on Afghanistan, using strategies to subvert the Afghan military forces
and topple Hamid Karzai as soon as the last US regiment leaves Afghanistan.
That is all likely to only strengthen China’s hand in Central Asia from Gwadar
to Kabul to Skardu and Aksai Chin.
Many believe that India can’t go to war with Pakistan
because of the nukes that Pakistan possesses. So does this mean that India must
subject itself to Pakistani blackmail and kowtow to Pakistani whims and
dictates?
This trend of likely events can be checked if Pakistan
is limited. If Gwadar and Kabul are denied to China, China in turn will be
limited by that much, especially at a time when China’s main oil supply comes
from the Persian Gulf. Thus, if Pakistan can be taken out, Kashmir returns to
India and China moves out of Baltistan. It’s only a continuation of the great
game of the 19th century – or else a simple game of
chess!
The picture for India without a Pakistan becomes even
better: the 500,000 Indian troops facing off against Pakistan on India’s Western
front can be spared 400,000 to move to the Chinese front. With a single stroke,
India can eliminate all threats from its Western side and doubly beef itself on
the Eastern fronts. Overnight, China’s force strength will become relatively
weak to India’s, numerically. Consequently, India’s entire military might,
including air force and navy can concentrate on the only remaining threat –
China. This will further make it easier to mop up Naxalite elements and
rehabilitate them. At a time when the threats to India are substantial, taking
tough action becomes all the more important. India has to prove the old adage
that “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.”
What will this do for India? It will enhance India’s
security for generations to come, strengthen overnight the value of the rupee,
increase India’s standing with Moody’s and Standard & Poor and similar
rating agencies, and attract Foreign Deposit Investment in the tens of billions
of dollars, which it needs. To take off, India simply has to shoot Pakistan
down. No game is won without defeating the opponent – it’s as basic a principle
as that. It seems strange that successive Indian governments have never had
this keen sense of competition. But, we know that the battle of Waterloo was
won on the playing fields of Eton. India had better get moving if it wishes to
survive in this competitive world, where anyone getting rich is able to command
sophisticated weapons and fighting platforms. If Pakistan doesn’t like this
game, it shouldn’t have started playing it. Needless to say, anyway, India will
finish the game one day.
The additional bonus of dispensing with a Pakistan is
that the risk of nuclear proliferation is bound to decrease. There is currently
a fear that Pakistani nukes may fall into the hands of the Taliban and other
terrorist outfits, which can be a further menace for India, USA, and Israel,
who, as far as the jihadists are concerned, fall into the same category of
kafirs, and against whom there has been immense rhetoric, bombing attacks, and
other action meant to destabilize those countries.
The end aim: terminate Pakistan, undertake some
geopolitical engineering by redrawing borders in current Pakistan and Pakistani
occupied areas, and bring peace to the Earth.
Many believe that India can’t go to war with Pakistan
because of the nukes that Pakistan possesses. So does this mean that India must
subject itself to Pakistani blackmail and kowtow to Pakistani whims and
dictates? Does the tail wag the dog in the real world? Is the strong bullied
by the weak? Do the destitute and indigent command the secure? Only in India,
with its distorted thinking. But, India and Pakistan must realize that India
too possesses nukes that it can use to retaliate with. While India will not use
nukes first, as per its military doctrine in this regard, Pakistan will ensure
its own annihilation if it dares use nukes on India. Pakistan will have a
choice at some point to surrender without using nukes and saving the life of its
people, or else surrender after using nukes, which will assure widespread death
and destruction in Pakistan. If Pakistan is a rational player, it will choose
the former path; if Pakistan is irrational, then all the more that the
disassembly of Pakistan should be expedited because it is simply unreliable. In
this regard, India needs to rediscover its spine and become conscious of the
fact that power flows only through military strength.
For the Western world, as well, which is worried about
jihadists and China alike, bringing down Pakistan is killing two birds with one
stone. It is thus time to put the shoulder to the hoe and dismantle Pakistan to
diminish threats to world peace.
For a nation that has as many smart and intelligent
people as India, it is simply a shame that they haven’t played their cards right
till now. The bottom line of action: allow commanders to cross the
international border upon any infiltration by Pakistan; remove the thorns and
untie the commanders’ hands; and plan for steady reduction of Pakistani military
assets over a prolonged period, even if it be months and years. The end aim:
terminate Pakistan, undertake some geopolitical engineering by redrawing borders
in current Pakistan and Pakistani occupied areas, and bring peace to the Earth.
That should shake China and make it wake up to realize it can’t stomp over the
Earth in its arrogance; that human liberties – even if in its own country — mean
something that mankind must cherish. Though China sought to teach India a
lesson in 1962 and Vietnam a lesson in 1979, it is time to teach communist China
a lesson. Therefore, to check China, Pakistan must be taken out; in fact, the
way to China goes through Pakistan. Thus will China be reduced from its present
position, giving its neighbors reprieve and breathing space and allowing all to
live in harmony with one another. All this without firing a single shot at
China. This simply means further that Pakistan is the last major holdout of the
negative forces, and that the sooner these are countered and destroyed, the
better for the world.
Dr. Amarjit Singh is Professor of Civil and
Environmental Engineering in Univ of Hawaii, Honolulu.
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