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| Obama II & Indo US Defence Relations |
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| Rahul Bhonsle: Apr 11, 2013 |
With confirmation of the Secretary of State and Defence a few weeks
back, US President Barack Obama’s second term is actively underway. Indo
US defence relations was one of the main areas of focus during the
first term. Much was being made by former Secretary of Defence Robert
Gates as well as his successor Leon Panetta of India as the, “net
security provider,’ in the region. This term was also picked up by
India’s defence minister Mr A K Antony calling the armed forces to look
towards security of the regional commons. The pitch on India during the
second tenure of President Obama seems to be on a role in the US Asia
Pacific pivot, which goes even beyond that of regional security.
Delivering
a talk on, “The U.S. Defense Rebalance to Asia”, at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C. on 08 April
(2013), amongst other facets Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton B.
Carter, outlined importance of India in US rebalancing as a, “key part,”
of the strategy. Mr Carter was fairly elaborate in the section
outlining partnerships as a part of the rebalance to emphasise
significant role that India is likely to play in the same. He said, “--
India – a key part of our rebalance, and, more broadly, an emerging
power that we believe will help determine the broader security and
prosperity of the 21stcentury”.
If Indo US defence relations are to
follow the trajectory outlined by Mr Carter much more would have to be
done to tighten the embrace between the defence bureaucracy and the
armed forces in the two countries.
More over apprehensions on
both sides on five key issues need to be addressed. Firstly establishing
smooth relations with new incumbents, the Secretary of State John Kerry
and Defence, Chuck Hagel has assumed significance, secondly even as the
current stream of engagement in terms of exercises and high level
visits seems to have run the full course, not much progress is evident
in expanding defence trade one of the key objectives of Mr Panetta’s
last visit to India. India’s apprehensions on US support to continued
role in Afghanistan due to Pakistan’s resistance is
the third factor,
while Americans are quite unsure of whether India will be able to take
on a larger mantle in the Indian Ocean Region much less in the Asia
Pacific. Finally India would like to take a far less strident stand vis a
vis China which may inhibit its participation in US led military
activities in the Asia Pacific.
Taking each of these issues one
by one, first impressions of Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary
of Defence Chuck Hagel in New Delhi are not very favourable. Kerry’s
proximity to the Pakistani establishment is well documented. He has most
recently met with the Pakistani Army Chief General Kiyani in Jordan
which may be seen by some as another indication of his alignment towards
the Establishment in that country particularly so as there is political
flux with elections due on 11 May.
Kerry is due for a visit to India in
June for the annual dialogue. This should provide an opportunity to
smoothen these wrinkles so to say.
On the other hand a video
that surfaced of an interaction of Mr Chuck Hagel, the Secretary of
Defence at Oklahoma's Cameron University in 2011 uploaded recently by
Washington Free Beacon, depicted India as having financed problems for
Pakistan in Afghanistan. These views are not likely to jell in Delhi
though there is possibly repositioning by Mr Hagel after having assumed
the august office.
The role of Mr Carter who provides continuity in the
Pentagon and has had a number of interactions with Indian defence policy
makers in harmonizing any apprehensions that Mr Hagel has on India
would be important. Hopefully he may substantially review India’s role
in Afghanistan in the context of regional rather than bilateral security
vis a vis Pakistan and provide sustained support for the same which
will be welcomed by New Delhi.
Mr Carter performs another
important role of smoothening regulations to facilitate arms trade
between India and the United States. He has had a number of
interactions with the policy makers in New Delhi as well as industry.
There appears to be limited progress except the call for opening up
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in defence industry by India. A review
of the foundational agreements and US Arms Exports act which are main
stumbling blocks for transfer of technology as well as co-production
seem to be in bureaucratic stasis in Washington and/or New Delhi. How
far the US administration is able to push amendments in the Congress may
determine the course of this review.
The UN Arms Trade Treaty
passed by the General Assembly in which India abstained may be another
challenge thereby posing additional impediments for expansion of
relations in this sphere. Though Mr Carter said at the CSIS that both
countries were engaged on this issue, “We also are working to deepen our
defense cooperation – moving beyond purely defense trade towards
technology sharing and co-production,” how much has really moved remains
to be seen?
On India’s role in the Asia Pacific, Mr Carter in
his speech at the CSIS stated that the Indian and US security converged
with particular reference to maritime security and other regional
issues. He outlined the support to India’s, “Look East,” policy. Mr
Carter said, “Our security interests with India converge on maritime
security and broader regional issues, including India’s “Look East”
policy. There is limited clarity on how this will manifest much less in
the US than in India due to lack of clear articulation of policy
objectives in New Delhi.
This has created apprehensions amongst
Americans of India’s commitment to playing a larger role in practice,
even though India has been quite active in expansion of its interests in
the region with a strategic partnership agreement inked in December
with ASEAN. Greater public diplomacy on the Indian side may be in order.
However
this is also linked to India’s concerns on raising the ante vis a vis
China in the South East Asian region which had come to the fore in
relation to oil exploration of the Vietnam coast and also presence of
Indian naval ships in South China Sea a few months back. Thus India
would not like to demonstrate intent of up-scaling presence in the
region where there are cross sections of US and Chinese interests.
In
the larger perspective Indo US defence relations are set to remain on a
progressive trajectory. Yet for greater impetus over the next four
years of President Obama’s tenure, which may also seen a change of
government or leadership in New Delhi with general elections due by
2014, issues outlined above need to be addressed on priority by both
sides. |
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